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30 July 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #268
War in Ukraine: Day 156
By Emmanuel Royan
War on the Ground
On 29 July, Ukrainian intelligence reported that mercenaries from the Russian private military firm, the Wagner Group, murdered Ukrainian Prisoners of War in the temporarily held village of Olenivka in the Donetsk area. On July 28, a large explosion occurred there. The Chief Directorate of Intelligence stated: "The explosions in Olenivka, which killed Ukrainian defenders, are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism committed by the occupier’s armed forces."
On 29 July, the ministry of infrastructure reported on the process of loading the initial ships under the "grain deal" signed. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, ambassadors from the G7 nations, Turkey, and UN representatives. Ten of the 17 ships that have previously been loaded at the ports of "Odesa" and "Chornomorsk" are prepared to go. The minister of infrastructure of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov stated: "For the first time since February 24, work has resumed in the seaports of Ukraine. Ships that were loaded with grain in the winter are ready to leave as soon as our partners, the UN and Turkey, agree on a ‘green corridor’ towards the Bosphorus Strait."
During the observation, Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine is awaiting the proper cues from allies, including UN and Turkish officials, before beginning grain shipments. He further mentioned that exports may start soon. He stated: "Our side is completely ready. Our military ensures the security situation, and we conveyed clear signals to our partners, the UN and Turkey. The UN and the Turkish side are in direct touch with the minister of infrastructure, and we are awaiting their signal to begin.
On 29 July, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba stated that the Civil Protection Mechanism of the EU will be used to help clear mines from formerly occupied territories in Ukraine, as Slovenia plans to send civilian mine-clearing equipment to Ukraine.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 29 July, the Russian deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko reported that 40 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed and 75 were injured when Ukrainian forces used HIMARS rockets to attack a jail in separatist-held territory. Ukraine said that Russia launched the attack to unjustly implicate Kyiv. The building allegedly housed soldiers of the Ukrainian Azov Battalion, who surrendered to Russian and Donbas troops during the siege of the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol.
Also on 29 July, the deputy chief executive of Gazprom, Vitaly Markelov stated that Russia's gas supply to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has to be reduced because of turbine issues. He told Russia-24 TV that the problems are a result of the German corporation Siemens, which manufactures and repairs the turbines. Markelov claims Siemens has only successfully fixed one-fourth of all detected issues with its turbines.
The chairman of Latvijas Gaze reported that despite refusing to comply with Moscow's demand for payment in rubles, Latvia has continued to purchase Russian natural gas. According to the chairman: "Latvijas Gaze is now purchasing gas, but we do not purchase gas from Gazprom since we are unable to pay Gazprom."
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 29 July, to update its military to NATO standards, North Macedonia proposed to provide Ukraine with an undefined number of Soviet-era tanks. In a statement: " North Macedonia has determined that a specific number of these tanks would be provided to Ukraine, in line with its demands, taking into consideration these circumstances and the requirements of the Ukrainian defence ministry."
Belarus’s foreign ministry recalled its ambassador to the UK to return to Minsk. As a result of London's "hostile" sanctions on Minsk for its suppression of the 2020 protests and participation in Russia's war in Ukraine. On the removal of the ambassador, the ministry said: "...does not imply that we are cutting off contact with London."
The German defence ministry stated that it would send 16 tanks to Ukraine that may be used to build temporary bridges or assist in repairing damaged ones so that troops and military vehicles can cross rivers. It mentioned that the Biber tanks would help Ukraine strengthen its combat. The ministry further added that the first six systems will be supplied this year beginning in the fall and that 10 further systems would follow in 2019.
On 28 July, the spokesperson of the US State Department Ned Price announced that the US and 37 other nations are organizing an expert team to assess the human rights situation in Russia. In response to recent Russian actions to restrict freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, as well as reports of torture of those held in detention in Russia, Price said in a statement that the review was sparked by the use of the "Moscow Mechanism" of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 29 July, following the postponement of diplomatic talks for the war-torn nation due to Russian demands, which were related to its invasion of Ukraine, the UN is proposing a "firewall" surrounding the procedure involving Syria. The ninth round of negotiations on a new Syrian constitution was supposed to take place this week in Geneva under the auspices of Geir Pedersen, the UN Special Envoy for Syria. However, Moscow objected to the location, apparently saying that Switzerland, which has imposed sanctions due to the Ukraine War, is not impartial, forcing them to postpone. The war-torn nation's constitution is the subject of exploratory discussions. The discussions may have opened the door to a more extensive political procedure.
On 29 July, the China-Europe Railway Express, which offers an alternative to shipping goods maritime between Asia and Europe, maybe exhibit indications of slowdown because of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. As a result prices for shipping containers have been reduced by an average of 20 per cent.
Also on 29 July, China said that the US had double standard positions by contesting Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan while emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty following a Russian invasion. In a discussion on Ukraine at the 15-member UN Security Council, deputy UN ambassador Geng Shuang reiterated Chinese leader Xi Jinping's warning to US President Joe Biden against playing with fire over Taiwan.
References
“It is important that Ukraine remains the guarantor of world food security - President in the Odesa region,” president of Ukraine, 29 July 2022
“Ten ships loaded with grain ready to leave ‘Odesa’ and ‘Chornomorsk’ ports,” ukrinform, 29 July 2022
“Slovenia to Provide Mine-Sweeping Equipment to Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 29 July 2022
“Wagner Group members kill Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka – intelligence data,” Ukrinform, 29 July 2022
“Russia says Ukraine struck prison in Donetsk region, killing 40,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
“Russia claims Ukraine had a reason to kill its own POWs,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
“EU country buying Russian gas despite claiming otherwise,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
“Russia’s energy giant explains gas flow reduction to EU,” rt.com, 29 July 2022
“North Macedonia donates tanks to Ukraine as it modernises own military,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
“U.S. sanctions two Russians for malign influence operations,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
“Belarus Recalls its UK Ambassador Over 'Hostile' Sanctions,” KyivPost, 29 July 2022
“Russia-Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy condemns attack on POW prison,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022.
“Blinken and Russia's Lavrov have 'frank' discussion about detained citizens,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
“OSCE countries to review human rights situation in Russia,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
“UN urges firewall around Syria discussions amid Russian opposition,” Daily Sabah, 29 July 2022
“China-Europe rail shipping growth slows as Ukraine war pushes companies back to the seas,” scmp.com, 29 July 2022
“As U.S. defends Ukraine at U.N., China warns against challenge over Taiwan,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
IRELAND
Ireland’s emission cut goals were deemed as problematic
On 29 July, the chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council in Ireland, Maria Donelly said that the sectoral targets set by the cabinet on cutting down greenhouse gas emissions are “problematic.” On 28 July, Ireland’s parliament finalized completed plans to cut down their emission by 25 per cent by 2023. Donelly said that these cuts are not in keeping with the carbon budgets or the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act. The act mandates a total reduction of 51 per cent, while the current cuts show a reduction of only 43 per cent. (“Climate change: Republic of Ireland emission cuts 'problematic',” BBC, 29 July 2022)
REGIONAL
Eurozone inflation stands highest at 8.9 per cent
On 29 July, Euronews reported that in July, the inflation in the Eurozone recorded the highest at 8.9 per cent. Increasing concerns about the possibility of inflation, this rise shows a marked slowdown of the bloc's economy. Among the countries that use the Euro as a single currency, the Baltic States are most affected because of their dependence on imports- Estonia (22.7 per cent), Latvia (21 per cent), and Lithuania (20.8 per cent). Other than these countries, Belgium, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Netherlands, Slovenia, and Slovakia are also in the double-digit category. The core inflation in the bloc stands at four per cent, which is the highest since the creation of the euro. This rise in the inflation rate is because of the spillover of the disruption in the global energy markets, the global food crisis, and China's strict zero-covid lockdowns. (Jorge Liboreiro, “Inflation across the eurozone reaches new all-time high of 8.9%,” Euronews, 29 July 2022)
Spain and Brazil record first non-African monkeypox death
On 29 July, Spain and Brazil recorded the first monkeypox-related deaths outside Africa. The current outbreak which started in May has been concentrated in Europe, which has 70 per cent of the current infections. Recently declared a public health emergency, monkeypox has spread to 78 countries. In Spain, the health ministry's emergency and alert coordination center announced that 4298 cases have been registered so far, among which information is recorded for 3750 patients. Of them, only 64 are women, 120 have been hospitalized and one has expired. The Spanish health ministry has not provided any further details on the deceased. (“Monkeypox: Brazil, Spain report first deaths outside Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022)
German foreign minister criticized by Turkey for her pro-Greece comments
On 29 July, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock spoke at a news conference in Athens and addressed the disputes between Turkey and Greece. She mentioned that Germany will always stick up for the EU family and said: "Lesbos, Chios, Rhodes, and many, many others ... are Greek territory, and no one has the right to query this." Bearbock’s comments have drawn criticism from Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, who maintains that Germany should maintain their “balanced stance” and not provoke further animosity between the two Aegean countries. Greece has criticized Turkey and Germany’s joint venture with Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems to build six 214-class submarines and have asked Germany to stop the delivery of military equipment to Turkey. (“Baerbock's Aegean islands remarks in Greece anger Turkey,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Meta reissues warning on the imminent ban of their services in Europe
On 29 July, in a US regulatory filing, Meta Platforms Inc. reiterated its warning that unless the deadlock regarding the new transatlantic data transfer pact is not resolved, they will be forced to stop their business in the European Union. If favorable deliberations are further delayed, Meta could face a ban by the Irish Data Protection Commission against EU-US data transfers. Meta said that unless a new framework is released and if they are unable to depend on SSCs or other alternative means of data transfers, they will not be able to provide services like Facebook and Instagram, in Europe. However, they added that this “would materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.” (“Meta Repeats Why It May Be Forced to Pull Facebook From EU,” Bloomberg, 30 July 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Finland, the UK, and the US conduct joint military exercise
On 29 July, 150 troops from the UK joined Finland and the US forces in Finland for “high-readiness” exercises. The exercise will be conducted over four days and involved 750 troops. UK’s troops stationed in Estonia were also flown in for the exercise which comes weeks after Finland and Sweden signed the accession protocol for NATO. UK Wing Commander, Stephen Boyle said: "As Finland moves towards full NATO Membership, we will continue to seek opportunities like this to show solidarity with Finland, learn from each other and improve our ability to operate together." (Kathryn Snowdon, “UK troops in Finland exercise amid Russia threat,” BBC, 30 July 2022)